He begins with a summary of the original DoD strategy for the war in Iraq:
The war plan, for good or ill has never been to occupy the country. It’s always been the plan for the Iraqis to provide security in their own country. ...Now, many Democrats previously acknowledged that this has been the plan all along. Joe Biden, for example, harangued Condoleeza Rice during her confirmation hearings about the lack of speed in training Iraqi troops. His questioning made no sense unless all agreed that this was the plan for ultimate withdrawal.
Instead of installing a puppet government, we’ve spent 2.5 years building up an Iraqi one. ... In other words, instead of going into Iraq and trying to run the country … we’ve done the minimal amount of work to keep Iraq in a holding pattern until the Iraqis could run it.
[Quoting a DOD source:] We can confirm that the plan is, in fact, to reduce the size of Coalition Forces in country in 2006. It’s big news inasmuch as the Iraqis are increasing the size and strength of their footprint and, by the same token, we’re reducing ours.
It has also been very clear from the beginning that specific milestones were to be achieved before withdrawal: appointing an interim government, drafting a constitution, holding elections for a permanent government. President Bush has been unwavering -- some would say stubborn -- in his commitment to these milestones. Now that these milestones are nearing achievement, some level of withdrawal can be contemplated.
Sensing continues:
So, knowing that the plan was to redeploy troops beginning next year, the Democrats decided to get in front of the wave: Demand the troops be sent home NOW and then when the Pentagon announces the plan to redeploy, take credit for it.Journalists such as Nina Easton of the Boston Globe are already talking about how the Republicans are modifying their stance in response to pressure from the Democrats. This is revisionism.
The two prongs of the attack serve two purposes. The “Bush lied us into war” wing satisfies the huge numbers of the party’s base suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome. The “declare victory and go home” attack preserves, however weakly, the party’s appeal to traditionally patriotic Democratic voters, of which there are also huge numbers. Doubtless the Dem leadership sees the attacks as a two-fer.
The appeals to both wings are intended to garner huge dividends in November 2006.
With any president but George W. Bush, they’d be wrong. But GWB is the easiest president to blind side that I have seen in my life. The fact is, the Dem plan is working like a dream for them. GWB has been simply flattened by this one-two punch. For someone whose allies say can play rope-a-dope politically better than M. Ali could in the ring, he and his advisors have been amazingly inept in meeting this strategy.
Be prepared next year for the Democrats to take credit for and campaign on rescuing the country from the Iraq quagmire as US troop levels are reduced. And if the security situation in Iraq does not permit significant reductions, well, that will work fine, too. It’ll be back to the charges of mismangement of a manipulated war.
